The Greatest Risks to Western Society: Insights from Historian Neil Ferguson

📉The risk of a recession next year is higher than market consensus due to a significant hike in real interest rates.

🏛️The US election poses a major political risk, as the Democrats are fielding an elderly candidate against Donald Trump.

🌎The United States faces major social problems, such as the mental health epidemic and opioid crisis.

🔥The US and China are in a second Cold War, increasing the risk of a hot war between the two countries.

📈If there is a recession, the Republican nominee, possibly Donald Trump, has a good chance of winning the election.

What is the likelihood of a recession next year?

—The likelihood of a recession next year is higher than market consensus, as there has been a significant hike in real interest rates.

What is the major political risk facing the US?

—The major political risk facing the US is the upcoming US election, where the Democratic candidate is elderly and has a weak running mate against Donald Trump.

What are the major social problems in the United States?

—The United States faces major social problems, such as the mental health epidemic and the opioid crisis.

What is the current state of the US-China relationship?

—The US and China are in a second Cold War, which increases the risk of a hot war between the two countries.

What are the chances of Donald Trump winning the election?

—If there is a recession, the Republican nominee, possibly Donald Trump, has a good chance of winning the election.

00:13Neil Ferguson highlights the risk of a recession next year due to a significant hike in real interest rates.

01:20He discusses the major political risk of the upcoming US election, where the Democratic candidate is elderly and has a weak running mate against Donald Trump.

01:41Ferguson points out the major social problems in the United States, including the mental health epidemic and the opioid crisis.

01:55He emphasizes the geopolitical risk of the US and China being in a second Cold War, with an increased potential for a hot war between the two countries.

02:07Ferguson mentions that if there is a recession, the Republican nominee, possibly Donald Trump, has a good chance of winning the election.