Is a Poll with 15,000 People More Accurate?

TLDRThe accuracy of a poll depends on its purpose; while 15,000 is a large sample size for a conventional poll, it may not be enough for predictive purposes like MRP. The Salvation Poll predicting UK election outcomes has technical flaws.

Key insights

📊A poll with 15,000 people is a large sample size for a conventional poll.

🎯For predictive purposes like MRP, a sample size of 40-50,000 would be needed.

📉The Salvation Poll predicting UK election outcomes has technical flaws.

Q&A

Is 15,000 people a large sample size for a poll?

Yes, for a conventional poll, a sample size of 15,000 is considered large.

Why is a larger sample size needed for predictive purposes?

To accurately predict outcomes like individual seats, a larger sample size of 40-50,000 is needed.

What are the technical flaws in the Salvation Poll?

The poll's methodology and constituency predictions have been criticized for being flawed.

Timestamped Summary

00:00The poll with 15,000 people is a large sample size for a conventional poll.

00:12For predictive purposes like MRP, a sample size of 40-50,000 would be needed.

01:42The Salvation Poll has technical flaws and its constituency predictions are questioned.

02:57A poll showing a large lead for a party may affect voter turnout.