How the Underwater Volcano in Tonga May Impact Global Temperatures

😲The underwater volcano in Tonga erupted in 2022, releasing an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the atmosphere.

🌡️This unique eruption composition may cause a temporary increase in global surface temperatures.

🌍There is a 50% chance that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold at least once by 2026.

📈Even if the temperature exceeds the threshold temporarily, it does not imply a failure of the Paris agreement.

🗞️The first year that exceeds the threshold will receive substantial media attention.

Will the eruption cause a permanent increase in global temperatures?

—No, the eruption will cause a temporary temperature rise, which will fade over the next five to ten years.

Why did the underwater volcano eruption result in surface warming instead of cooling?

—The eruption released an unusual amount of water vapor, a greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere, causing surface warming.

Does the eruption affect the success of the Paris agreement?

—Temporarily exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold due to the eruption does not determine the success or failure of the Paris agreement.

What is the likelihood of global temperatures exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold?

—There is a 50% chance of global temperatures temporarily exceeding the threshold at least once by 2026.

Will the eruption impact climate change events like droughts or floods?

—The impact of the eruption on climate change events such as droughts or floods is expected to be minimal due to the small contribution of Tonga to the surface temperature anomaly.

00:00The eruption of the underwater volcano in Tonga in 2022 may cause global temperatures to temporarily rise, increasing the chance of exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold.

00:19The eruption released an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the atmosphere, which is a greenhouse gas.

01:29There is a 50% chance that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold at least once by 2026.

04:31Temporarily exceeding the threshold does not imply a failure of the Paris agreement.

07:52The eruption will cause a temporary temperature rise, which will fade over the next five to ten years.