2024 Outlook: S&P 500 Highs Not in Yet, Market has Made Zero Gains in Last Two Years

TLDRThe S&P 500 is expected to continue rallying in 2024, as the market has made zero gains in the last two years. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will play a crucial role, and there is a possibility of rate cuts. However, if the Fed keeps rates too high for too long, it could push the economy into a recession. The market sentiment is improving, but there are still risks to watch out for.

Key insights

📈The S&P 500 is likely to make new highs in 2024, despite concerns of a crash due to rapid gains in recent weeks.

💰2024 is expected to be a bullish year for the stock market, with high single digit to low double digit gains in the indices.

💼Corporate profit growth and margin expansion are expected, contributing to the positive outlook for the stock market.

🔎Market sentiment is improving, with more investors foreseeing a stronger global economy in the next 12 months.

📊Earnings estimates for 2024 show positive growth, with companies expected to outperform.

Q&A

What are the major risks for the stock market in 2024?

The major risks include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which could push the economy into a recession if rates remain too high. Geopolitical tensions and the upcoming election could also contribute to market volatility.

When is the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates?

The timing of rate cuts is uncertain, but there are indications that the Fed could start easing in the first half of 2024. This will depend on economic data and the Fed's assessment of inflation and growth.

What is the outlook for corporate profits in 2024?

Corporate profits are expected to grow by around 12% in 2024, driven by margin expansion and positive earnings growth. This will contribute to the overall bullish outlook for the stock market.

Is now a good time to invest in the stock market?

While the market has been performing well, it's important to carefully assess your investment strategy and goals. Consult with a financial advisor to determine the best approach based on your individual circumstances.

What are the potential catalysts for stock market growth in 2024?

Positive earnings surprises, continued economic growth, and a supportive monetary policy are potential catalysts for stock market growth in 2024. Additionally, resolution of trade disputes and improved geopolitical stability could contribute to market performance.

Timestamped Summary

00:00The S&P 500 is expected to continue rallying in 2024, as the market has made zero gains in the last two years.

06:39The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will play a crucial role in the stock market's performance.

10:03The major risks for the stock market in 2024 include the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and geopolitical tensions.

19:26The timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is uncertain, but indications suggest potential easing in the first half of 2024.

21:44Corporate profits are expected to grow by around 12% in 2024, contributing to the positive outlook for the stock market.

26:51Investors should carefully assess their investment strategy and goals before making decisions in the stock market.

31:37Positive earnings, economic growth, and a supportive monetary policy are potential catalysts for stock market growth in 2024.